A big part of that resurgence has also been the play of Kawhi Leonard, who is once again reminding the league that he is one of the best players of this generation when at the top of his game. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +300 History tells us that the team with home-court advantage in the NBA Finals wins about 72 percent of the time, which would seem to confer a massive advantage on Golden State in this series. The Bucks overtook the Celtics for the Easts top spot, despite three-time All-Star Khris Middleton playing just 20 games and still rounding into form. The 8 NBA teams that can win the championship this season, Jaden Ivey pulled a Chris Webber, and it cost Pistons the game vs. Bulls. Who won the NBA championship last season? Calling a timeout in crunch-time when your team doesnt have one? So Why Do The Advanced Stats Think He Is One? Jayson Tatums steady progression has also been a huge factor. Denver Nuggets (42) About six percent of bettors at BetMGM favor Dallas to win the West. RAPTOR foresees a significant drop-off from that group of five teams to the Easts four play-in squads, as well as from the play-in group to the also-rans. The Grizzlies have a league-high 10 rotation players projected as net-positives in total RAPTOR (though one of those is Danny Green, who may not play at all this season). 1 But. If it does, the Nets have a legitimate chance to contend for a title. After all, the last time Atlanta fired its coach in the middle of the season, it went to the Eastern Conference Finals. Ormaybe youre set on the Warriors. Can The NBAs Experimental Endgame Make It To Games That Count? Atlanta's big stretch under McMillan that led them to the 2020-21 conference finals showed he can push the right buttons down the stretch. Thats a core that NBA bettors really seem to like, too. Continuity will be a factor too, but Durant could easily fit in to just about any team. The Suns and Mavericks had the two biggest deadline deals of the season, acquiring Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, respectively, from the Brooklyn Nets. Pivot point for the rest of the season: If the Knicks want to make a push down the stretch, they'll need more intensity on the defensive end. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values. But when Las Vegas offers a bet on the Nets winning the championship at 7:1 odds, translated to a 12.5 percent likelihood of happening, that is NOT reflective of what they think will happen. Things can change fastso keep track of the latest NBA Futuresbefore you bet. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. The 4 ways this Aaron Rodgers mess can end, Bet on the 2023 NBA Playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook, reportedly dodged a bullet with the severity of that injury, Anthony Davis unwinnable fight to save the Lakers season, Trae Young is going to soar in Quin Snyders offense, NBA Scores: Mavericks lose to Pacers, fall to 1-4 since Kyrie Irving trade, Giannis trash talked the NBAs biggest stars on The Daily Show, and it was adorable. This seems to be the approach taken by most Eastern Conference contenders. Our final play-in team is the New York Knicks, who leapfrog past the Chicago Bulls thanks to: a) The as-yet-undetermined-length-of-time absence of Lonzo Ball; b) The addition of Jalen Brunson; and c) Our shortening of New Yorks rotation, which kept Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes and Isaiah Hartenstein from receiving far too little projected playing time. Toronto Raptors (88) The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. In the meantime, lets take a look at how we see the standings shaking out in each conference. Nets-Celtics, 7:30 p.m. February 22, 2023 6:00 AM . Doncics numbers will take a hit, but his squads ceiling is so, so much higher now. Pivot point for the rest of the season: How will Harden fit? The model shows the Boston Celtics with the best odds at 43 percent, followed by the Dallas Mavericks (35 percent) and the Miami Heat (15 percent). James and Davis are also projected for slightly worse RAPTOR outputs this year than in previous seasons due to age (James) and chronic injury risk (Davis). They are followed by the Milwaukee Bucks (+550) and Denver Nuggets (+650) to round out the top three on the oddsboard. Why Vegas odds and statistical models disagree on best bets to win 2022 NBA Finals | Sporting News OKC PHI 67 64 3rd Quarter - 10:19 BOS BRK 57 57 2nd Quarter - 0:10 MIL MIA 41 36 2nd Quarter. They won six of their past seven and had found a strong rhythm playing behind Jimmy Butler and a solid core of guys who play just like him. Miami Heat (+1000) 2. For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight also predicted that the Warriors would miss the playoffs altogether back in October. Can the Warriors get healthy just in time again? The NBA's Eastern Conference is deeper than it has been in decades, setting up what should be a wild sprint to the playoffs over the final seven weeks of the 2021-22 NBA regular season. All rights reserved. If youre a first-time NBA bettor, dont sweat it. The All-Star break is over and its time to look ahead to the stretch run of the NBA season. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. Values and rankings in key statistical categories for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors during the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. ET, TNT): Health and safety protocols robbed fans of seeing Young return to Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day, so this will be his first trip back since the playoff series last year that ended with him taking a bow at halfcourt. Brooklyns 45-win projection seems destined to be either way too high or way too low we just dont know which direction it will go yet. (Im personally higher than our player projections are on Kuminga.). ET, TNT): If Simmons is ready to play, this is arguably the most interesting game left on the NBA's regular-season calendar. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Heat won 11 of 14 games during a stretch from Dec. 21 to Jan. 19, and they did it almost entirely without Bam Adebayo -- who missed all but two games while recovering from thumb surgery. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference . So this rematch should have a little extra edge. Denvers regular-season resume has been good so far. If that trio is healthy and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown keep playing at such a high level Boston still looks like the East favorite. Philadelphia 76ers (+750 . The Celtics look like easily the deepest team in the NBA. Teams finishing in seventh through 10th place (indicated by black border) are in line to compete in a postseason play-in contest. Two days later, the Hornets topped the Los Angeles Lakers to improve to 28-22 on the season. His 27.5 points per game in February ranks eighth among all players. Design and development by Jay Boice. In five of the previous seven seasons, the eventual title winner came from the group of teams with 5 percent odds or better, so theres a decent chance we will be crowning one of those aforementioned squads next June though that doesnt narrow things down very much. Udoka had a significant impact on Bostons performance last season, particularly on defense, where his decision to turn Robert Williams III into a roving help defender transformed the team into one of the best defensive units in recent memory. ET, ESPN): Will the Knicks still be in the play-in picture? FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.3%. Even if you dont like or believe our default forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings (which, again, I dont necessarily blame you), the Celtics are also 68 percent favorites according to our classic Elo-based predictions. Its common knowledge, of course, that sports are unpredictable -- especially in the volatile NBA where anything can happen in any game. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values. Milwaukee still has a shot at claiming first place in the Eastern Conference before the season ends. Illustration by Elias Stein. Must-see game left on the schedule: Mavericks at Wizards, April 1 (7 p.m. As of Feb. 26, the Lakers have a 40 percent chance of making the 2023 NBA Playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight's projections . The NBA title, as you'd expected, goes to favorites. The Warriors do have more postseason experience, an important factor when looking at historical Finals success. Download data. ET): Led by Mobley and center Jarrett Allen, the Cavs' biggest strengths -- their defense and front court -- will be tested in each meeting with the Sixers and Embiid. Similarly, the Warriors have home-court advantage for the Finals by virtue of their superior record (despite being a lower seed within their own conference). Those odds are in spite of the No. What's unclear is whether they can hit enough shots to truly take advantage of it. The number is much shorter now (+1400) but still long enough to warrant a value bet. Read more . He let his frustration out in a moment that will be remembered long after the season ends. Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much youd win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds. Durant, 34, has missed his last 20 games with a MCL sprain and Paul, 37, has missed 21 games this season. The Nets remain hopeful New York City mayor Eric Adams will roll back the city's vaccination mandate, but nobody knows for sure if or when that will happen. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. How quickly they can get on the floor, get up to speed and revive a struggling defense could make the difference. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. And in this case, theres plenty of evidence that the better team doesnt have home-court advantage. FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projects the following order for the NBA 's playoff seeds (title odds via Fanduel in parentheses).. Eastern Conference. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Milwaukee Bucks (72) If you were to lay down $100, youd see a payout of $650 you get your $100 back, plus your earnings of $550. It's no surprise White has immediately become a fixture in Boston's closing lineup. Today, they are +450. Jevon Carter and Grayson Allen have been fixtures in the Bucks starting lineup and both are contributing in a big way, knocking down over 40 percent of their threes. Were still early enough in the season for some solid value picks. They also have to hope Rose can come back at a high level and stabilize New York's bench. Weighted by the minutes played in the 2022 playoffs, the average Golden State player had 2,031 previous career postseason minutes, second among playoff teams behind only the Brooklyn Nets. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team, How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Playoff and title projections: He has played four games for his new team so far, but if he can help take some of the playmaking and scoring burden off of All-Star guard Darius Garland, Cleveland could have a chance to go from pleasant surprise to making noise in the postseason. This year, however, there are 11(!) Our How to Bet on the NBA page has everything you need to know so you can feel comfortable making wagers on pro basketball. The Easts current fifth-place team is available at an astonishing +15000 in the championship odds table and +5000 in the Eastern Conference market. The Hawks odds themselves have collapsed, dropping from +8000 a month ago to +15000 after the coaching change. They got even deeper at the deadline acquiring stretch big Mike Muscala from the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Bucks came into the break as the Easts hottest team and have kept it going, extending their win streak to 15. Now, its up to the Warriors to prove the less-favorable odds wrong. The Clippers arent the only team in town that made moves. The FiveThirtyEight projections are significantly less favorable to Golden State than those released by oddsmakers this week, who have the Warriors as the betting favorite to win the championship. Playoff and title projections: Design and development by Jay Boice. So Why Do The Advanced Stats Think He Is One? Also not among that group are the L.A. Clippers even after we made a change to the minutes projection for Kawhi Leonard.1 Both the Clippers and Pelicans figure to benefit from the new way we are projecting minutes on a game-to-game basis this season, but those effects will not be seen until games actually start being played. All boast championship odds between 5 and 7 percent and are projected for between 49 and 51 wins with point differentials between plus-3.0 and plus-3.8 per game. Its also worth noting that the Celtics, who emerge as the favorite here, are tied with the 2020-21 Lakers for the lowest title odds (21 percent) of any preseason favorite since the forecast began in 2015-16. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. Caesars title odds: +3000 NBA playoff chase: Everything to know about 12 Eastern Conference contenders, KD stars with Booker in long-awaited Suns debut, LaMelo has surgery on right ankle, out for season, 'Felt like practice': Lillard, McCollum square off, Mitchell fights off injury, hangs 44 on Celts in loss, Embiid (sore left foot) misses win against Heat, Bulls hold on as Ivey's TO gaffe costs Pistons, Sources: Warriors eye Curry return next week, What NBA Finals runs from LeBron, Giannis can teach Jayson Tatum, NBA Power Rankings: Kevin Durant's return could rock the West, Meet the man scouring Nigeria for the next generation of NBA and NFL talent, Roundtable: Early takeaways from Kyrie Irving joining Luka Doncic in Dallas, NBA title and MVP bets for second half of season, What the NBA might look like without 75 years of baggage, Sign up now to unlock everything ESPN+ has to offer. Must-see game left on the schedule: Heat at Celtics, March 30 (7:30 p.m. While many teams likely still think they're in contention, eight teams are at +1600 or better to . Perhaps the most interesting move is the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved closer to the top of the table despite firing their coach this month. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The Bulls did not make a move at the trade deadline because of their belief in the team when it's at full strength. How much will this game affect playoff odds, Show our forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings. Lets take a look at those eight contenders and where they stand as the NBA races to the finish line. Boston Celtics (87) But the Celtics have also been the better team during the playoffs. This is not to say there arent any measurable factors breaking in Golden States favor with this matchup. 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